What Would Evade $250 Billion In Trump China Tariffs? Golf Clubs, Plastic Napkins, Cell Phones, More

If you’re a golfer and the clubs you are eyeing are stamped “Made In China” — and most are — it appears you are safe.

The Trump Administration ended six days of hearings this week from constituencies with opinions on his threats to add $200 billion in Chinese imports to the current list of $50 billion already subject to tariffs. The tariff fight, involving the world’s two largest economies, is the most significant such fight since the 1930s.

It is part of an effort by Trump, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and trade adviser Peter Navarro to reduce the U.S. deficit with China, which is five times greater than with any other nation; to push China to better protect U.S. companies’ intellectual property; and to end the Chinese practice of forcing U.S. companies to turn over technology and other trade secrets in order to do business there.

So far, it has resulted in retaliatory tariffs. And one, not-particularly-productive, low-level meeting.

I, on the other hand, have been quite productive. I have identified more than 2,500 products that would not be subjected to the proposed tariffs.

Like golf clubs.

If you’re eyeing Christmas ornaments, whether of glass or wood, you are probably safe.

Sunglasses? You’re good.

Chess or checker sets? You’re good, too.

Bras, whether with lace or without, cotton or silk, probably OK here too.

Plastic napkins? Bring ’em on.

Although the Trump Administration announced it was particularly interested in hitting those products that were critical to China’s 2025 plan to become a world leader in certain high-technology areas, it appears that in its quest to get to $250 billion, it had a few soft spots as well. Like for pillow cases and life jackets, synthetic ties and surfboards.

And golf balls, baseballs, bowling balls, soccer balls, volleyballs and footballs. And pool tables. Merry-go-rounds and men’s wool sweaters. Nativity scenes. Artificial baits and flies. Backpacking tents. Playing cards and electric blankets. Ceiling fans. Lithium storage batteries.

That $250 billion target — the proposed $200 billion plus the $50 billion already in place — is almost equal to half of the value of all Chinese imports into the United States in 2017. That total, $505.60 billion, was something of a milestone: the first time China’s, or any country’s, imports into the United States or any other country had ever topped one-half trillion dollars. Nearly $135 billion of that total went through the Port of Los Angeles alone.

The easiest way to get to $250 billion is, of course, to start with the most significant imports. While attacking those items critical to the 2025 plan might have been important, it appears someone over at U.S.T.R. also sorted the list by total value.

Consequently, also excluded from the potential tariff list are some of the United States’ top imports from China.

In fact, looking at just the top 20 imports — as classified by the 10-digit harmonized tariff system– those excluded were valued at $121.79 billion, or almost half the $250 billion total. Cell phone imports, worth $44.07 billion in 2017, are excluded. Laptops, $37.31 billion. Certain children’s toys, $8.18 billion.Video-game consoles, $4.50 billion. A large swatch of apparel items, largely women’s but also including men’s, didn’t make the two lists of items already subjected to tariffs or the third list, the one valued at $200 billion, that is being threatened and was the subject of six days of hearings.

What doesn’t fare well are furniture, anything with iron or steel in them, lighting fixtures, certain cell phone equipment, washing machines and quite a number of computer parts.

If you are interested in looking into this yourself, here is a  PDF for the first tariffs, one for the second tariffs and one for the proposed tariffs. The government released its list by 8-digit harmonized tariff code. If you have never looked at these codes, it will probably be a little mystifying since the lingo and abbreviations are not always straightforward.

Using 8-digit codes made things a little challenging for me. I have been looking at trade data for the better part of two decades. And for the annual publications we produce for communities around the country and make available at our website, we use 4-digit codes. In addition, every great once and a while, I look at 2-digit codes, pretty frequently use 10-digit codes for clarity but have never used 8-digit codes.

At the 10-digit level, there are more than 14,000 categories compared to slightly more than 1,250 at the 4-digit level. I sorted the 10-digit list by value, then extracted the first eight digits to compare against the three U.S.T.R. PDFs. From there, I was able to determine, among other things, that men’s robes containing at least 70% silk would be exempted (2017 import value $508), as would badminton nets ($25,705) — and the golf clubs, golf balls, volleyballs, bowling balls, footballs, soccer balls …